000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N82W TO 05N92W TO 08N104W TO 
04N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS AND 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W 
AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 94W...WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 94W AND 105W...WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W 
AND 129W...AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 136W 
AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE HAS CUT OFF NEAR 26N126W IN THE MIDDLE OF 
A DEEP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N123W TO 14N127W TO 00N127W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 05N152W WITH AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A CREST NEAR 36N135W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS NOW ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING W OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND TO THE S OF THE 
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. OTHERWISE THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY 
N OF 08N W OF 115W.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM NEAR 18N102W TO A 
SHARP CREST NEAR 07N116W. E PACIFIC ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING 
ENHANCED UNDER THIS RIDGE FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WESTWARD TO 
114W. RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS FANNING OUT TO THE S ALONG 
THE EQUATOR TO THE E OF 110W. SOME OF THE MOISTURE ALSO IS 
SPREADING OUT TO THE N ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE TO ALONG 15N.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 
16N80W AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
DIPPING TO THE SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A BASE NEAR 09N87W. 
VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED NE OF A LINE FROM THIS TROUGH BASE TO THE 
UPPER RIDGE NEAR 17N98W HOWEVER CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED 
OVER GUATEMALA AND EXTREME SE MEXICO WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT 
IS NOW MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE E PACIFIC.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS CENTRAL AXIS EXTENDING FROM ABOUT 
32N133W TO NEAR 12N98W. NE TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE AT 
15-20 KT WITH SEAS 8-10 FT IN MIXED NE AND INCREASINGLY 
PREVALENT SOUTHERLY SWELL. 8-11 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING E-SE OF 
THE RIDGE AXIS PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL.

GAP WINDS...NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AT 15 TO 20 KT BRIEFLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. NW
WINDS AT 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD DIMINISH TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.  
    
$$
LEWITSKY