000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031511
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1200 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 9N84W 6N100W 7N110W 3N120W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS FROM 105W AND 119WW AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 135W 
TO 139W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N125W TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 27N126W CONTINUING TO 20N130W  AND INTO THE 
DEEP TROPICS NEAR 02N130W. SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 
ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE BETWEEN THE TROUGH 
AND A RIDGE TO THE E...GENERALLY S OF 15N. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSHPHERE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 105W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
SEPARATES THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH FROM ANOTHER TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SE NEW
MEXICO INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER 
FLORIDA WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO TO 10N115W. E PACIFIC 
CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE E 
OF 120W.

SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. TRADES 
AROUND 20 KT ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 
13N W OF 110W.

A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE 
FIRST FROM 9N-5N ALONG 93W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE 
TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N105W TO 5N108W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM E AND 60 NM
W OF THE TROUGH AXIS

$$
DGS