000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 08N78W TO 02N97W TO 06N108W TO 03N125W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 105W AND 115W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
118W AND 124W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 134W AND 
138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA FROM NEAR 32N106W TO 28N118W TO 21N130W TO THE 
DEEP TROPICS NEAR 02N130W. MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE FROM THE ITCZ OUT AHEAD OF THE 
TROUGH TO 22N WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE N OF 22N.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 09N148W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE NE JUST W OF 
32N140W. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 11N104W. E PACIFIC CONVECTION IS BEING 
ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ UNDER THIS RIDGE E OF 124W. 
  
THREE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE EASTERNMOST 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N94W TO 03N93W. CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE 12 
HOURS AND THE TROUGH MAY COMPLETELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AS IT 
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE STRONGEST TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 10N106W TO 02N110W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W. A 
THIRD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N136W TO 03N138W. A RECENT ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT N OF 09N AND W 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MEANDER 
FROM NEAR 32N136W TO 10N107W. NE TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE TO THE 
SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND ALSO N OF 25N W OF 125W WHERE A TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT ALSO EXISTS. SEAS ARE BETWEEN 8-11 FT IN THIS SAME 
AREA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF NE...SW AND NW SWELL.

A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE E GULF OF CALIFORNIA COAST BY 
THIS EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE 
MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY 
TUE.

GAP WINDS...NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
    
$$
LEWITSKY