000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030358
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N86W TO 04N123W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS NOTED TO THE N OF 03N 
BETWEEN 85W AND 89W AND IS DIMINISHING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND 
INTENSITY. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM 
LINE EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N106W TO 04N122W...AND ALSO 
WITHIN 30 NM OF 05N134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING CENTRAL N 
AMERICA CONTINUES SW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N105W TO 
17N104W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE LONGWAVE 
PATTERN WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 32N120W TO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 
27N128W TO DEEPENING BASE NEAR 07N133W. UPPER MOISTURE CONTINUES 
TO SPREAD SE INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA 
BETWEEN 103W AND 126W...BUT ALMOST COMPLETELY EVAPORATES ALONG 
32N. THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY N OF 10N W OF 104W. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 08N149W WITH AN 
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE THROUGH 32N141W TO OVER CANADA. THE 
RIDGE IS BECOMING UNSTABLE AND WILL COLLAPSE SE OVER THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA ON MON.   

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED OVER THE MEXICAN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A SHARP CREST OVER 
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 05N122W. E PACIFIC ITCZ CONVECTION IS 
ENHANCED UNDER THIS RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA TO 120W. A LOW LEVEL 
TROUGH HAS BEEN APPEARING INTERMITTENTLY FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS 
OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. 
NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH 
CURRENTLY ALONG 97W FROM 13N TO 07N. RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
FROM THE CONVECTION E OF 103W FANS OUT WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE 
SPREADING S OF THE EQUATOR...WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE 
CONTINUES TO CONCENTRATE INTO A PLUME RACING N ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FUELING THE FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER 
ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
A RIDGE AXIS IS MEANDERING FROM 32N137W TO NEAR 10N105W. NE 
TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH SEAS 
8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 28N TO E OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS ARE AT 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS HEIGHTS TO 13 FT IN N 
SWELL. NW SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS OVER THE 
TROPICAL WATERS W OF 105W.

GAP WINDS...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AT 15 TO 20 KT BRIEFLY ON TUE. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE 
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MON NIGHT INTO TUE.  
    
$$
NELSON