000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N86W TO 04N129W TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE 
OVER THE AREA S OF 10N E OF 95W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 03N99W TO 05N112W TO 05N120W...AND IN SMALL 
CLUSTERS WITHIN 15 NM OF 04N131W AND 05N138W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING CENTRAL N 
AMERICA CONTINUES SW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N105W TO 
17N109W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE LONGWAVE 
PATTERN WITH ITS AXIS THROUGH A NEWLY FORMING UPPER CYCLONE AT 
28N127W TO DEEPENING BASE NEAR 09N133W. UPPER MOISTURE CONTINUES 
TO SPREAD SE INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA 
BETWEEN 105W AND 127W...BUT ALMOST COMPLETELY EVAPORATES ALONG 
32N. THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY N OF 07N W OF 104W. 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 08N149W WITH 
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE THROUGH 32N142W TO OVER CANADA. THE 
RIDGE IS BECOMING UNSTABLE AND WILL COLLAPSE SE OVER THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA ON MON.   

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED OVER THE MEXICAN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A SHARP CREST OVER 
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AT 06N119W. E PACIFIC ITCZ CONVECTION IS 
ENHANCED UNDER THIS RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA TO 119W. A LOW LEVEL 
TROUGH HAS BEEN APPEARING INTERMITTENTLY FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS 
OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. HIGH 
RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 12N97W TO 07N97W BUT IS ONLY ACCOMPANIED 
BY 10 KT WIND SHIFT. RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE 
CONVECTION E OF 102W FANS OUT WITH SOME SPREADING S OF THE 
EQUATOR...WHILE SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS NOW CONCENTRATING INTO A 
PLUME RACING N ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EVENTUALLY 
FUELING THE FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL 
TENNESSEE. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
A RIDGE AXIS IS MEANDERING FROM 32N135W TO NEAR 10N105W. NE 
TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH SEAS 
8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 28N TO E OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS ARE AT 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS HEIGHTS TO 12 FT IN N 
SWELL. NW SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH SOUTHERLY SWELLS OVER THE 
TROPICAL WATERS W OF 105W.

GAP WINDS...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AT 15 TO 20 KT BEGINNING EARLY TUE MORNING. 
    
$$
NELSON