000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 10N85W 5N110W 4N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 480 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
85W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 109W-114W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. ACROSS NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 24N134W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 105W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NW OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC
TO 9N107W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W AND 102W.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 19N130W
TO 10N130W THEN SW TO THE EQUATOR AT 138W. SOME HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS WITHIN 600 NM E OF THE TROUGH S OF 15N.

SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 115W. TRADES TO 
20 KT ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 
115W. SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 8N109W TO
3N110W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE TIME BEING...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAINFALL THROUGH MON THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD
DRY OUT.
   
$$
DGS