000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 10N86W TO 07N100W TO 05N115W TO 04N125W TO 
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 480 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 91W AND 99W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 90 NM TO 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 138W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE 
CONUS ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
NEAR EL PASO TEXAS INTO N CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WATERS NEAR 25N109W TO 17N107W TO 11N109W. 
EARLIER MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS BEING ADVECTED SE 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SINCE DIMINISHED WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE 
FROM 17N TO 28N E OF 120W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
30N119W TO 23N135W WITH YET ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM 22N130W TO 
05N134W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED E OF THE 
LOWER TROUGH AXIS FROM 02N TO 20N. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS W OF THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 
10N150W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N-NE OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND 
INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N140W. 
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IN PLACE BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHS. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED E OF THE AREA NEAR THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS BELIZE AND GUATEMALA AND INTO 
THE E PACIFIC NEAR 14N91W TO 09N102W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING 
ENHANCED S OF THE ANTICYCLONE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 80W AND 100W. 
ELSEWHERE ITCZ CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO 16N112W. 
NE-E TRADES OF 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING MAINLY W OF 120W DUE TO A 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S. 8-13 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL 
ARE PREVALENT IN THIS SAME AREA WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING 
FROM 28N TO 32N W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. IN ADDITION NW WINDS OF 
20 KT ARE BEING FUNNELED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. 
A 00Z WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO CAPTURED W TO NW WINDS OF 
20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS NOW PROPAGATING INTO THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE N-NE 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS COMMINGLING 
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED NORTHERLY SWELL.

OTHERWISE...NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL OCCUR BEGINNING AROUND 
00Z TUE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRES 
DEVELOPS JUST INLAND OVER MEXICO ALONG THE E GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
COAST. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TUE.

...GAP WINDS...
NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
BEGINNING AROUND 06Z TUE LIKELY PERSISTING FOR APPROXIMATELY 24 
HOURS.
   
$$
LEWITSKY