000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010934 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT MAY 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ANALYZED FROM 11N86W TO 11N90W TO 05N110W TO 06N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 88W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH SE ARIZONA/EXTREME NW MEXICO TO A BASE NEAR 20N118W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WAS MOVING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NE AHEAD OF THE VORT CENTER ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WAS ADVECTING SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SWD TO 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. ELSEWHERE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 18N FROM WRN MEXICO THROUGH 140W. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE MEAN LONGWAVE PATTERN AND FURTHER AMPLIFY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SW FROM ARIZONA ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. A QUASISTATIONARY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH MEAN CENTER OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC THROUGH 06N117W TO A CREST AT 06N135W. ITCZ CONVECTION HAS BEEN ENHANCED UNDER THE ENTIRE UPPER RIDGE ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 80W AND 115W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 140W IS BEING ADVECTED NE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART IS EVAPORATING AS IT REACHES 18N IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SINKING DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ABOVE. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ CONVECTION ENHANCED BETWEEN 80W AND 120W IS FANNING OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING SW ACROSS THE EQUATOR WHILE SOME OF THE MOSITURE IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE... A WELL DEFINED RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N143W SE THROUGH 30N137W TO 17N105W. NE TRADES THE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE AVERAGING 20 KT...WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE E OF THE RIDGE REACH THE WESTERN BAJA PENINSULA AND ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS TO 15-16 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO ABOUT 27N...WITH SEAS TO 7 FT IN REFRACTIVE SWELL AT THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF. THESE NW SWELLS SHOULD REACH THE DEEP TROPICS SAT AND EVENTUALLY MIX WITH A NEW SERIES OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL CROSSING THE EQUATOR ON SUN. THE SOUTHERLY MONSOON FLOW OVER THE FAR SE WATERS HAS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED TO ABOUT 7 FT. CURRENTLY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N94W TO 07N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BREAKING OUT WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINE FROM NICARAGUA TO EXTREME SE MEXICO AS THE MONSOON FLOW IS BEING LIFTED ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE. $$ COBB