000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290350
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU APR 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ANALYZED FROM 08N84W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N E OF 
90W...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N99W TO 04N108W 
TO 06N127W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
04N133W TO 06N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N112W TO 21N102W. UPPER MOISTURE IS 
NOTED N OF 30N E OF 114W AND SPREADING E ACROSS NORTHERN OLD 
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. OTHERWISE 
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 23N W OF 96W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 13N88W WITH AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG 12N110W TO 
07N137W. ITCZ CONVECTION HAS BEEN ENHANCED UNDER THE RIDGE E OF 
126W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE 
RIDGE TO ALONG 22N...WHERE SOME OF THE MOISTURE EVAPORATES IN 
THE DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER A THIN BAND OF 
MOISTURE DOES CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO AND 
THE GULF OF MEXICO EVENTUALLY CROSSING OVER THE STATE OF 
FLORIDA. SOME OF THE MOISTURE ALSO SPREADS S FROM THE ITCZ 
CROSSING THE EQUATOR E OF 97W...AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE IS 
ALSO ADVECTED NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
A COLD FRONT IS LOSING IDENTITY FROM 32N115W TO 24N140W. 
NORTHERLY WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO 
THE NE OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 127W. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 
TO 20 KT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA 
AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER MOST OF THE AREA N 
OF 18N OVER THE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS WILL 
PROPAGATE SE INTO THE AREA...WITH SEAS HEIGHTS TO 17 FT...AND 
CONTINUE SE REACHING THE DEEP TROPICS BY THE WEEKEND. A 
SOUTHERLY MONSOON TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SE WATERS 
FROM ABOUT 07N82W TO 04N88W WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 
KT...SEAS EVENTUALLY BUILDING  TO 12 FT...WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM SE 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS.        

$$
NELSON