000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221002 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU APR 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 33N77W TO 07N88W TO 06N101W TO 10N114W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 08N87W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N95W TO 04N100W...AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM OF 04N120W WHERE INTERMITTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS APPEARING. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS ALONG 32N117W TO 17N130W. UPPER MOISTURE IS ROTATING TROUGH THE TROUGH TO THE N OF 31N E OF 121W...OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED NW OF A LINE ALONG 16N140W TO 18N122W TO 30N106W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 03N122W WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A CREST NEAR 32N99W. ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 113W AND 137W. SOME OF THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 107W AND 136W...BUT MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOW ADVECTED N MERGING WITH A PERSISTENT TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ CONVECTION W OF THE AREA. THE COMBINED MOISTURE PLUME IS ADVECTED NE OVER THE AREA FROM 17N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 140W AND 117W...AND FROM 27N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 117W AND 97W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM S AMERICA ALONG 08N TO A GENTLE CREST AT 08N87W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED CONVECTION EARLIER WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING NE ACROSS COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N142W TO 12N97W. SURFACE WINDS ARE ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THIS RIDGE WITH NE 20 TO 25 KT TRADES ALREADY ESTABLISHED S OF THE RIDGE W OF 115W. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY 20 KT WINDS AS WELL... SPREADING EASTWARD TO THE BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. $$ NELSON