000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141551
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 06N89W TO 02N100W TO 08N124W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W 
AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 05N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 113W...AND FROM 05N TO 08W W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA S 
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 24N112W. THIS FEATURE WAS 
PREVIOUSLY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS 
RECENTLY DISSIPATED AS IT ENCOUNTERED THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER 
WESTERN MEXICO. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS POSITIONED NW OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N150W WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH 
EXTENDING TO 33N146W TO 28N147W. THESE MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
FEATURES ARE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND 
FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
AROUND 18Z TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 
TO 25 KT N OF 25N E OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH AND W-SW WINDS OF 
20-25 KT W OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL 
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MAJORITY OF 
THE ENERGY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE 
N-NE OF 32N.

TO THE S...TWO MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES ARE CENTERED NEAR 
07N133W AND 08N118W WITH A RIDGE AXIS REACHING FROM 08N140W TO 
06N92W. DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE S-SE OF THE ANTICYCLONES IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. A 
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 11N140W 
WITH THE JET AXIS CONTINUING TO THE NE-E AROUND THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO NEAR 19N122W TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF 
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. THIS JET WITH 
CORE SPEEDS OF 100-125 KT AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE DERIVED 
WINDS IS ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP 
TROPICS NEAR 00N142W. 

OTHERWISE DRY AND STABLE AIR EXISTS BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND ANTICYCLONE GENERALLY FROM 20N TO 
27N.

TO THE FAR E...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC NEAR 08N89W...WHILE A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO THE W NEAR 05N85W. THE TROUGH 
AND RIDGE ARE SEPARATED BY A COL LOCATED NEAR 04N87W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE W PORTION OF THE COLOMBIAN RIDGE 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 93W 
WITH SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTING TO THE NE ALONG THE 
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

AT THE SURFACE...NE TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT GENERALLY COVER THE 
AREA FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 115W. THE ASSOCIATED SHORT PERIOD NE 
WIND SEAS ARE COMMINGLING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL AND CROSS 
EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL THAT HAS BEEN PROPAGATING N 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE RAPIDLY 
DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KT. EVEN SO WILL MAINTAIN NE TO E WINDS 
TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 18Z IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT 
FOR ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER THIS 
MORNING.

$$
FORMOSA