000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130919 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE APR 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 06N78W TO 06N88W TO 06N106W TO 05N115W TO 06N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 111W...AND WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 118W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN OREGON AND IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. AN ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS S-SE FROM THE CYCLONE WITH THE TAIL END CLIPPING THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 30N115W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS WELL N OF THE AREA AND THUS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE AREA S OF 32N. AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY NW OF THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 36N155W WITH A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CYCLONE CENTER TO 32N150W TO JUST N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WHICH WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AROUND 12Z WED. 20-25 KT WINDS BOTH E AND W OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED N OF 25N BY 36-48 HOURS. TO THE S AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N120W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE W BEYOND 12N140W...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE E TO 10N90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW S-SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ MAINLY BETWEEN 96W AND 125W. THE RESULTANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS FANNING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA S OF 17N BETWEEN 103W AND 122W. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AXIS ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 20N140W CONTINUING NE TO 26N130W THEN SE ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO CENTRAL OLD MEXICO NEAR 19N104W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE CORE SPEEDS OF 105-130 KT. THIS JET CAPS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS ALONG 128W WITH A SWATH OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION W OF THE AREA BETWEEN 155W AND 170W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE SE UNITED STATES COAST EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND GULF OF HONDURAS TO A BASE IN THE E PACIFIC NEAR 10N88W W OF COSTA RICA. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPRESSING AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA TO A SHARP PEAK NEAR 07N86W AND IS SEPARATED BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE TO THE W BY A COL. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE W PORTION OF THE COLOMBIAN RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 96W WITH SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTING TO THE NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY FROM 08N TO 18N E OF 107W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO NEAR 30N112W TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A 0420Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED NW WINDS OF 20 KT FROM 22N TO 27N WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE PENINSULA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 13 FT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE OVER THE NW-N PORTION OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE A RIDGE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. 20 KT NE TRADES EXTEND FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 120W AND FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 135W. ASSOCIATED NE WIND WAVES ARE COMMINGLING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SW SWELL THAT HAS BEEN PROPAGATING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND IS BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS AS FAR N AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PERSISTENT NE TRADES TRADES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA ARE WEAKENING AND AS A RESULT THE WINDS THAT ARE BEING FUNNELED THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 00Z WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY