000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130329 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE APR 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 04N77W TO 07N88W TO 05N116W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 03N120W TO 06N132W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 133W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN OREGON AND IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NWD. AN ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SSE FROM THE CYCLONE AND CLIPS THE FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 30N110W. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ALSO LIFTING N AND NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N119W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO BEYOND 11N140W...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO 10N92W. UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW S AND SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. THE RESULTANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS FANNING OUT WITHIN THE RIDGE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W...WITH SOME MOISTURE SWEEPING NE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. AXIS OF A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET CUTS ACROSS 26N140W TO 30N128W THEN DIVES SE THROUGH 27N120W TO THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 22N100W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 110-130 KT. THIS JET CAPS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS ALONG 130W WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ CONVECTION W OF AREA BETWEEN 150W AND 165W. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A BASE OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPRESSING AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS W FROM COLOMBIA TO A SHARP CREST AT 08N88W AND WAS SEPARATED FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE BY A COL. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE W PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 105W...WITH SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE NOW ADVECTED NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC FROM 08N TO 18N E OF 105W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING FROM EXTREME NE BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N115W TO 22N130W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST AND DISSIPATE EARLY TUE. A RIDGE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NE TRADES OF 15 TO 20 KT GENERALLY COVER THE AREA FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 130W. ASSOCIATED NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH SW SWELL THAT HAS BEEN PROPAGATING NE OVER THE AREA E OF 130W...AND NOTED AS FAR N AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PERSISTENT NE TRADES TRADES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 KT OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 25 KT DURING THE PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATE TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB