000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120916 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON APR 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 06N100W TO 06N117W TO 04N128W TO 03N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS AND 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 118W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR THE ORCA BORDER AT 42N125W WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING S-SE TO NEAR 27N119W. A SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH GENERALLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 121W AND 134W AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONNECTS TO ANOTHER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE GENERALLY FROM 24N TO 28N ACROSS THE AREA. AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N108W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE E NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 10N88W...AND EXTENDING TO THE W TO NEAR 12N140W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ MAINLY E OF 110W. RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS BEING EXHAUSTED OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 21N BETWEEN 90W AND 132W WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO THE NE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WITH JET CORE SPEEDS OF 115-135 KT EXTENDS FROM SE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 20N140W AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT ADDITIONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NE-E. TO THE FAR E...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN S OF CENTRAL CUBA TO ACROSS NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA AND INTO THE E PAC NEAR 08N89W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO THE W S-SE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 05N87W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 90W IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE CONVERGENT FLOW BETWEEN THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...1018 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 25N119W AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT NW OF THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE E-SE. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 32N119W TO 24N124W TO 25N130W AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD REACHING FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 25N122W THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUE. A SET OF NW SWELL UP TO 13 FT IS PROPAGATED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A LONGWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. NE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT FROM ABOUT 08N TO 14N W OF 127W IN 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS THEN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 115W AND 128W BY 48 HOURS. THE NE WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THESE TRADES WILL MIX WITH SW SWELL CURRENTLY PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS S OF 20N REACHING ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. GAP WINDS... GULF 0F TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N94.5W TO 16N94.5W DURING ABOUT THE NEXT 18 HOURS WITH THE RESULTANT NORTHERLY WIND WAVES COMMINGLING WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PERSISTENT NE TRADES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 20 TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS/SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 30 HOURS EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 12Z TUE AS THE CARIBBEAN TRADES WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. THE RESULTANT SHORT PERIOD NE WIND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM/ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY