000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG 02N79W TO 04N90W TO 03N95W TO 06N117W...CONTINUES 
FROM 07N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
60-90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 85W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 104W AND 113W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED N OF AREA NEAR 39N126W WITH A 
NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SSE TO 
28N120W. A BAND OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ROTATING THROUGH THE 
BASE OF THE TROUGH GENERALLY N OF 30N BETWEEN 123W AND 135W AND 
CONNECTS TO ANOTHER AREA OF SUBSIDENCE NOTED WITHIN 120-150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26N140W TO 29N110W. AN EXPANSIVE 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N110W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING WSW TO BEYOND 10N140W...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO 
JUST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SE 
OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 95W AND 115W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS FANNING 
OUT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 
135W...WITH SOME MOISTURE CONTINUING NE ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE EVAPORATING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 20N. 
A THIN LINE OF DEBRIS MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION W OF AREA BETWEEN 142W AND 157W...IS STREAMING NE 
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITH 60 NM OF LINE 
22N140W TO 28N110W AND APPEARS TO BE CAPPING A 120-130 KT BRANCH 
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET.    

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
AND MEXICO TO OVER THE E PAC TO A BASE NEAR 10N92W. AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDS W OVER THE COAST OF S AMERICA TO A SHARP CREST AT 
10N92W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN W COLOMBIA AND 102W IS 
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED...BUT DEBRIS MOISTURE QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN 
THE DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 18N E OF 
108W. 

AT THE SURFACE...DISSIPATING HIGH PRES 1018 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 
25N119W AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A COLD 
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 32N122W TO 23N140W TO CONTINUE E 
REACHING THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA MON NIGHT BEFORE 
DISSIPATING ALTOGETHER. A RIDGE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE 
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NE TRADES AT 15 TO 20 KT 
GENERALLY COVER THE AREA S OF 18N W OF 110W. ASSOCIATED NE SWELL 
IS MIXING WITH SW SWELL THAT HAS BEEN PROPAGATING NE OVER THE 
AREA E OF 130W...AND NOTED AS FAR N AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF 0F TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W FOR ABOUT 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE RESULTANT N WIND WAVES MIXING WITH SW 
SWELL.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PERSISTENT NE TRADES TRADES OVER THE W  
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AT SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. THE RESULTANT SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG 
PERIOD SW SWELL. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH 
MORNING DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW.    
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB