000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112133
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 05N100W TO 08N115W...CONTINUES FROM 10N120W 
TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 97W...AND WITHIN 
120-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 111W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED N OF AREA NEAR 39N127W WITH 
A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO 28N122W. A BAND OF 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WITHIN 120-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27N140W TO 30N110W. 
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N112W 
WITH A RIDGE W TO BEYOND 10N140W...AND A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SE OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 103W 
AND 111W. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS FANNING OUT OVER THE 
DISCUSSION AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 135W...WITH SOME 
MOISTURE CONTINUING NE ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER 
RIDGE EVAPORATING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 20N. A THIN LINE OF 
DEBRIS MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION W OF AREA 
BETWEEN 142W AND 157W...IS STREAMING NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF 
THE RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITH 60 NM OF LINE 22N140W TO 28N110W AND 
APPEARS TO BE CAPPING A 120-130 KT BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET.    

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
AND MEXICO TO OVER THE E PAC TO A BASE NEAR 10N92W. AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDS W OVER THE COAST OF S AMERICA TO A SHARP CREST AT 
10N92W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN W COLOMBIA AND 102W IS 
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED...BUT DEBRIS MOISTURE QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN 
THE DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 18N E OF 
108W. 

AT THE SURFACE...DISSIPATING HIGH PRES 1021 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 
25N120W AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A COLD 
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 32N125W TO 24N140W TO CONTINUE E 
REACHING THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA MON NIGHT BEFORE LOSING 
IDENTITY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF 
THE FRONT. NE TRADES AT 15 TO 20 KT GENERALLY COVER THE AREA S 
OF 18N W OF 110W. ASSOCIATED NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH SW SWELL 
THAT HAS BEEN PROPAGATING NE OVER THE AREA E OF 130W...AND NOTED 
AS FAR N AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF 0F TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS N OF 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W FOR NEXT 
36 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE RESULTANT N WIND WAVES MIXING WITH SW 
SWELL.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PERSISTENT NE TRADES TRADES OVER THE W  
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AT SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. THE RESULTANT SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL WILL MIX WITH LONG 
PERIOD SW SWELL. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH 
MORNING DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW.    
  
GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE 
WATERS OF 06N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
OVERNIGHT.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB