000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110326 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN APR 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 03.5N83W TO 05N91W TO 03.5N103W TO 09N118W TO 03N136W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 104W. SCATTERED LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240-360 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... A SHARP L/W MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EXTREME NE PAC EXTENDING S AND COVERS THE N PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 27.5N WITH TWO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NOTED WITHIN THE L/W TROUGH. ONE S/W HAS LIFTED NE THROUGH THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE NW U.S. WHILE A SECOND SIGNIFICANT S/W WAS MOVING E-SE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 133W. THIS SECOND S/W IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT HAS JUST BEGUN TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO SWEEP E ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA BY MON WITH AN INCREASE IN NW SWELLS RAISING SEAS UP TO 14 FT. S OF 25N...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED GENERALLY W OF 95W WITH AN ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE NEAR 9N123W. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 23N140W AND CONTINUES EWD THROUGH 22N130W TO 22N120W AND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THE JET IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS EWD ACROSS THE AREA TO CENTRAL MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED JET CORE SPEEDS OF IN EXCESS OF 150 KT W OF 120W. ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS...CONVECTION REMAINS VERY ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W AND 130W AND IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE ABOVE AREA OF BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUING TO HOLD S OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT CONVECTION NEAR AND ALONG THE ITCZ TO REMAIN ACTIVE W OF ABOUT 110W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...A NARROW MID/UPPER CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM WRN HONDURAS SW TO 10N97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS NEAR THE TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS DEVELOPED. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 7N EXTENDING EWD TO ACROSS S AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE UNDER THE RIDGE ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 88W TO WELL INLAND THE COLOMBIAN COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM A 1032 MB HIGH ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PAC AND HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME...CAUSING TRADE WIND N OF THE ITCZ TO DIMINISH TO AT OR BELOW 20 KT. THE COLD FRONT NOTED ABOVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N115W TO 22N132W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 48 HRS AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AS WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. GAP WINDS... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO FUNNEL W ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO RESULTING IN NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 95W AS SUPPORTED BY A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM 1610 UTC TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...THEN DECREASE TO 20 KT IN 48 HRS AS THE WRN CARIBBEAN TRADES WEAKEN QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY. A SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT ANALYZED ACROSS SE MEXICO IS ALLOWING FOR N TO NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT TO CONTINUE TO FUNNEL S THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 14N95.5W TO 13N97W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS AT 20-25 KT...THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY 36 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING