000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102200 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT APR 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 05N83W TO 06N90W TO 03N103W TO 10N119W TO 05N130W TO 05N137W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 98W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE EXTREME NE PAC COVERS THE N PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NOTED WITHIN THE L/W TROUGH. ONE S/W HAS LIFTED NE THROUGH THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE NW U.S. WHILE A SECOND SIGNIFICANT S/W WAS DIVING SE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND BEGINNING TO SWEEP MORE E-SE INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 132W. A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP S FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS HELPING TO SHARPEN/AMPLIFY THE TROUGH. THIS SECOND S/W IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND SWEEP E ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA BY MON WITH AN INCREASE IN NW SWELLS OF UP TO 14 FT. S OF 25N...A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED GENERALLY W OF 95W WITH AN ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE NEAR 9N123W. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 23N140W AND CONTINUES EWD THROUGH 22N130W TO 22N120W AND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THE JET IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS EWD ACROSS THE AREA TO CENTRAL MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED JET CORE SPEEDS OF IN EXCESS OF 150 KT W OF 130W. ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS...CONVECTION REMAINS VERY ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 110W AND IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE ABOVE AREA OF BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUING TO HOLD S OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT CONVECTION NEAR AND ALONG THE ITCZ TO REMAIN ACTIVE W OF ABOUT 110W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...A NARROW MID/UPPER CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM WRN HONDURAS SW TO 10N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE ERUPTED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TROUGH AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HAS DEVELOPED. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 7N EXTENDING EWD TO ACROSS S AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE UNDER THE RIDGE ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 82W TO WELL INLAND THE COLOMBIAN COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N134W TO NEAR 23N114W AND IS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE S WITH TIME. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF NE WINDS OF 20 KT REMAINING FROM 4N-15N W OF 130W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SE AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO COMPLETELY RELAX AND TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE COLD FRONT NOTED ABOVE WILL PUSH INTO THE NW SECTION OF THE AREA IN 6-12 HOURS THEN WEAKEN AS IT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N121W TO 22N140W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT IN 48 HRS AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AS WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. GAP WINDS... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO FUNNEL W ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO RESULTING IN NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 93W AS SUPPORTED BY A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM 1610 UTC TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...THEN DECREASE TO 20 KT IN 48 HRS AS THE WRN CARIBBEAN TRADES WEAKEN QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ANALYZED ACROSS SE MEXICO IS ALLOWING FOR N TO NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT TO CONTINUE TO FUNNEL S THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 14N95.5W TO 13N97W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS AT 20-25 KT...BUT DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AND BE CONFINED TO N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT BY 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING