000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091018 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI APR 09 2010 CORRECTED SURFACE ANALYSIS TIME TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 7N90W 6N102W 6N116W 3N124W 3N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 120W-127W ...WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W-106W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W-86W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 22N116W...THEN SE TO NEAR 11N110W. A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT W OF THE TROUGH S OF 21N WITH THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE MOVING E 10-15 KT NEAR 8N129W. MODEST RIDGING IS ELSEWHERE W OF THE TROUGH. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 20N140W...AND HEADS E TO NEAR 20N120W WHERE IT SHARPLY CURVES NEW TO ACROSS SRN BAJA AND INTO NRN MEXICO. THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS EWD TO NEAR 110W AND NE FROM THERE TO OVER NRN MEXICO. AN AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IS W OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N TO 29N. THE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BEING FORCED EWD BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WELL W OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE THE DEEP TROPICS...CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 117W UNDER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN PLACE...EXPECT CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE W OF ABOUT 110W ROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HRS. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA WITH A VERY NARROW AXIS STRETCHING SW TO NEAR 8N93W. IT HAS HELPED FIRE UP A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS FROM ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 86W-93W. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DRIFTING W IS JUST S OF THE EQUATOR AT 95W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE STRETCHES INTO THE AREA FROM A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA 38N138W SE TO NEAR 18N120W. HIGH PRES COVERED THE AREA N OF 14N AND W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ WAS MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT W OF A LINE FROM 30N122W TO 22N126W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOWERS PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF NW 20-30 KT WINDS JUST N OF THE AREA E OF 126W. AS THE HIGH CENTER SLIDES SE AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...THIS WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SE IN RESPONSE TO A RATHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH IS QUICKLY ADVANCING EWD. THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NW WATERS SAT AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE FAR NRN AND NE WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MON WHILE WEAKENING. WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 30 KT WITH GALE CONDITIONS JUST N OF THE AREA. WINDS DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHT OF 12 FT JUST N OF 30N E OF 130W...WITH SEAS 9 TO 11 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 110W TO THE EQUATOR IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ANOTHER BATCH OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS ORIGINATING FROM THE NW WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NRN WATERS LATER SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MAX SEAS WITH THIS SWELL TRAIN SHOULD REACH 14 OR 15 FT ALONG OR NEAR 30N LATE SAT INTO SUN. GAP WINDS... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO FUNNEL W ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO RESULTING IN PULSES OF NE 20 KT WINDS. THESE WINDS JUST RECENTLY WERE LESS THAN 20 KT...BUT WITH ENHANCED EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW WILL SHORTLY PERK BACK UP TO 20 KT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT...AND TO 20-30 KT BY LATE SAT NIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE A BRIEF OCCURRENCE. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT FOR EARLY IN APRIL IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND IT OVER SE MEXICO...N WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FILTER SWD THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 14N95W. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS SHOULD VARY LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS... THEN DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT BY 48 HRS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 10 FT IN 24 HRS...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8 OR 9 FT IN 48 HRS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE