000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091004 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI APR 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 7N90W 6N102W 6N116W 3N124W 3N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 120W-127W ...WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W-106W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W-86W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 22N116W...THEN SE TO NEAR 11N110W. A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT W OF THE TROUGH S OF 21N WITH THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE MOVING E 10-15 KT NEAR 8N129W. MODEST RIDGING IS ELSEWHERE W OF THE TROUGH. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 20N140W...AND HEADS E TO NEAR 20N120W WHERE IT SHARPLY CURVES NEW TO ACROSS SRN BAJA AND INTO NRN MEXICO. THIS JET IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS EWD TO NEAR 110W AND NE FROM THERE TO OVER NRN MEXICO. AN AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IS W OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N TO 29N. THE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BEING FORCED EWD BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WELL W OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE THE DEEP TROPICS...CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 117W UNDER THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN PLACE...EXPECT CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE W OF ABOUT 110W ROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HRS. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA WITH A VERY NARROW AXIS STRETCHING SW TO NEAR 8N93W. IT HAS HELPED FIRE UP A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS FROM ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 86W-93W. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DRIFTING W IS JUST S OF THE EQUATOR AT 95W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE STRETCHES INTO THE AREA FROM A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA 38N138W SE TO NEAR 18N120W. HIGH PRES COVERED THE AREA N OF 14N AND W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ WAS MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT W OF A LINE FROM 30N122W TO 22N126W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOWERS PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF NW 20-30 KT WINDS JUST N OF THE AREA E OF 126W. AS THE HIGH CENTER SLIDES SE AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...THIS WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SE IN RESPONSE TO A RATHER VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH IS QUICKLY ADVANCING EWD. THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NW WATERS SAT AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE FAR NRN AND NE WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MON WHILE WEAKENING. WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 30 KT WITH GALE CONDITIONS JUST N OF THE AREA. WINDS DIMINISH LATE SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A MUCH WEAKER GRADIENT. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHT OF 12 FT JUST N OF 30N E OF 130W...WITH SEAS 9 TO 11 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 110W TO THE EQUATOR IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE MERGING LONG PERIOD SRN HEMISPHERIC SW SWELLS AND NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HRS. GAP WINDS... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO FUNNEL W ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO RESULTING IN PULSES OF NE 20 KT WINDS. THESE WINDS HAVE DROPPED JUST BELOW 20 KT THIS EVENING BUT WILL BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KT OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO PULSATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO ENHANCED NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEGUN TO USHER IN NLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND DOWNSTREAM IN A NARROW PLUME OVER THE NEXT 24-26 HOURS AND COULD REACH AT OR JUST BELOW GALE FORCE BRIEFLY FRI MORNING AROUND SUNRISE...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 11 FT. WIND AND SEAS THERE WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT EVENING...AND THEN PULSE UP AND DOWN ACROSS A SMALL AREA N OF 14N THROUGH MON NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE