000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050350
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENETRED ALONG 05N77W TO 06N96W TO 04N118W TO 03N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAK REMNANTS OF UPPER TROUGH FROM 29N99W TO 10N119W MOVE OVER 
INLAND MEXICO MON. SW JET STREAM 75 KT ON SE SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS 
ADVECT TROPICAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON 10 DEG WIDE 
SWATH.  MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 09N95W ALLOWS MOISTURE 
OVER ITS CREST INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT  
LITTLE OR NO UPLIFTING MECHANISM AVAILABLE TO PROMPT SIGNIFICANT 
RAINFALL AS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT REMAINS ADVERSE. 
 
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF E PAC N OF ITCZ W OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS 
IS UNDER BROAD RIDGE.  DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SCATTERED TO 
BROKEN STRATIFIED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND VOID OF SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.  LONG FETCH AROUND EASTERN RIDGE PERIPHERY BRINGING 
LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL INTO E PAC SPREADING THROUGH BASIN W OF 
92W.    

...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...

HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 MB WELL NW OF BASIN WEAKENS AND DRIFT E-SE 
FORCING HEALTHY COLD FRONT N OF 30N TO DIG INTO NE CORNER OF 
BASIN LATE MON.  FRONT PROMPTS FRESH NW BREEZE ALONG BOTH COASTS 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS RISING TO 12-13 FT ON E 
PAC SIDE. FRESH TRADES FROM 08N-16N W OF 128W EXPECTED TO BECOME 
STRONG BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTH AND 
SQUEEZES PRES GRADIENT.  

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 15N IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN FORCING FRESH 
EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO WELL 
AHEAD OF PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SHOULD GET STRONGER AND LAST 
THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES