000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 06N97W TO 04N120W TO 03N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS E OF 
90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS AND 75 
NM N OF AXIS W OF 124W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK REMNANTS OF UPPER TROUGH FROM 28N104W TO 12N123W MOVE OVER 
MEXICO MON.  SW JET STREAM 75 KT ON SE SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS 
ADVECT TROPICAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WIDE SWATH. 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 08N96W ALLOWS MOISTURE OVER 
ITS CREST INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AREA OF 
MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF RIDGE ENHANCES ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 
90W.  

OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF E PAC N OF ITCZ W OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS 
IS UNDER BROAD RIDGE.  DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SCATTERED TO 
BROKEN STRATIFIED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND VOID OF SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.  LONG FETCH AROUND EASTERN RIDGE PERIPHERY BRINGING 
LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL INTO E PAC SPREADING THROUGH BASIN W OF 
93W.    

...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB WELL NW OF BASIN WEAKENS AND DRIFT E-SE 
FORCING HEALTHY COLD FRONT N OF 30N TO DIG INTO NE CORNER OF 
BASIN.  FRONT PROMPTS FRESH NW BREEZE ALONG BOTH COASTS OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS RISING TO 12-13 FT.  FRESH TRADES 
FROM 08N-16N W OF 128W EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG BY END OF 
FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTH AND INCREASES PRES 
GRADIENT.  

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 15N IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN FORCING FRESH 
EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO WELL 
AHEAD OF PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SHOULD GET STRONGER AND LAST 
THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES