000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041526 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN APR 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1400 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W TO 06N95W TO 04N112W TO 05N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S AND 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 80W AS WELL AS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 120W. TWO TROUGHS WERE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE EASTERN TROUGH WAS FROM 08N125W TO 02N126W AND HAD SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH FROM 03N TO 06N. THE WESTERN TROUGH WAS FROM 06N131W TO 01N134W AND HAD SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N112W TO 12N120W. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO MEXICO BY MON MORNING. AN 80 KT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET LIES ON THE SE SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...MANIFESTED AS SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS...NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 125W INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS JET AND A 40 KT NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY JET FROM 00N125W TO 10S123W AND CONTINUING SE IS GENERATING VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE ITCZ..PRIMARILY E OF THE EASTERN-MOST TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE WESTERN TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALSO HAS SOME SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED IN ITS VICINITY. THIS TROUGH LIES UNDER A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE AXIS S OF 10N ALONG 130W. FARTHER E...AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS CENTERED NEAR 09N96W ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A RELATIVE PRECIPITABLE WATER MINIMUM ALONG THE ITCZ. HOWEVER...MOSITURE IS INCREASING ON ITS WESTERN SIDE AND CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN COSTA RICA WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 09N83W TO 06N88W AND ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 80W UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND INCREASES THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. FARTHER N...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS SHIFTED WELL W OF THE AREA NEAR 36N164W. A COLD FRONT OVER THE DESERT SW EXTENDS S INTO THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...ENCROACHING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF ITS SURFACE RIDGE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER PRES OVER THE DESERT SW AND THE RIDGING OVER NE WATERS IS GENERATING NW TO N WINDS TO 25 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SHIP SIVY NEAR 27N115W REPORTED 24 KT WINDS AT 1200 UTC. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UNKNOWN SHIP REPORTED SMOKE AND 18 KT WINDS NEAR 24N113W. THE SMOKE IS BELIEVED TO HAVE ORIGINATED FROM A FIRE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N115W AS ANALYZED BY NESDIS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNCHANGED THROUGH MON MORNING AND THEN EXPAND S AND WESTWARD AS THE LOW PRES IN THE WESTERN U.S. IS REINFORCED BY A NEW NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MON. THE RIDGE AXIS OVER FORECAST WATERS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD AS THE REINFORCING SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND A NEW N PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE HIGH FROM THE NW. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE AREA OF TRADES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND E AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO 25 KT MON THROUGH TUE. THE 0546 UTC ASCAT PASS CURRENTLY SHOWS FRESH TRADES FROM 08N TO 22N W OF 130W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER