000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030302
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 03N78W TO 06N117W TO 04N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 102W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 116W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER SW CONUS EXTEND SW FROM 32N100W ACROSS SRN 
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
BEHIND TROUGH EXTEND NW OF TROUGH THROUGH REMAINDER OF BASIN.  
SW JET STREAM 100 KT JUST SE OF AXIS BRINGS ABUNDANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE AND ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SE TEXAS.  IT APPEARS MOISTURE SWATH 
RUNS WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOT ALLOWING BOUNDARY TO REACH IT. 
UPSTREAM FROM TROUGH AXIS IS BROAD ANTICYCLONE AT 22N144W 
MAINTAINING DRY STABLE AIR MASS THROUGHOUT ENTIRE BASIN N OF 
ITCZ W OF 120W.  MODEL GUIDANCE STEER TROUGH NE WHILE RIDGE 
FLATTENS AS IT ENTERS BASIN LEAVING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY 
END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  

MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 04N93W HAS ITS RIDGE CREST 
FLATTENED BY ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH ALSO MAINTAINS DRY AND 
STABLE AIR MASS UNDER ITS UMBRELLA SE OF SWATH OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE HEADING TO NW GULF OF MEXICO.  MODERATE DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONE ENHANCNG SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ FROM 93W-102W.  

AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD HIGH PRES WELL NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 16N113W. 
STRONG NE TRADES DIMINISH TO A FRESH BREEZE AS HIGH PRES DRIFT E 
WHILE WEAKENING.  WINDS ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA ALSO SUBSIDE 
SUN.  LONG NORTHERLY FETCH ON E SIDE OF RIDGE PROMOTE LARGE LONG 
PERIOD SWELLS TO ENTER NW PART OF BASIN AND SPREAD SE THROUGH E 
PAC W OF 95W.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES