000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 06N90W TO 05N115W TO 03N126W TO 03N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S AND 90 NM N OF 
AXIS E OF 97W AND ALSO W OF 130W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS FROM 105W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER SW CONUS EXTEND SW ACROSS SRN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 16N140W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND 
TROUGH EXTEND NW OF AXIS THROUGH REMAINDER OF BASIN.  SW JET 
STREAM 100 KT JUST SE OF AXIS BRINGS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE 
AND ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SE TEXAS 
WHERE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT LIKELY TAP IT FOR RAINFALL...MAINLY 
OVER WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  UPSTREAM FROM TROUGH AXIS IS BROAD 
ANTICYCLONE AT 23N144W MAINTAINING DRY STABLE AIR MASS 
THROUGHOUT ENTIRE BASIN N OF ITCZ W OF 120W.  MODEL GUIDANCE 
STEER TROUGH NE WHILE RIDGE FLATTENS AS IT ENTERS BASIN LEAVING 
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  

MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 06N93W HAS ITS RIDGE CREST 
FLATTENED BY ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH ALSO MAINTAINS DRY AND 
STABLE AIR MASS UNDER ITS UMBRELLA SE OF SWATH OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE HEADING TO SE TEXAS.  MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONE ENHANCNG SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ E OF 95W.  

AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD HIGH PRES WELL NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 11N101W. 
STRONG NE TRADES DIMINISH TO A FRESH BREEZE AS HIGH PRES DRIFT E 
WHILE WEAKENING.  WINDS ALONG COAST OF CALIFORNIA ALSO SUBSIDE.
LONG NORTHERLY FETCH ON E SIDE OF RIDGE PROMOTE LARGE LONG 
PERIOD SWELLS TO ENTER NW PART OF BASIN AND SPREAD SE THROUGH E 
PAC W OF 95W.  

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO E-NE FRESH BREEZE DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ALTHOUGH 
OCASSIONAL NIGHT MOUNTAIN DRAINAGE COULD ENHANCE IT LATE IN 
FORECAST PERIOD.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES