000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310307
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 05N87W TO 02N109W TO 05N117W TO 05N130W TO 
04N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
180 NM OF AXIS E OF 80W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 112W-131W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER FAR NW PORTION OF BASIN FROM 
32N134W TO 24N140W TO WELL DEFINED CYCLONE AT 21N141W.  LARGE 
AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO E PAC BY 65 KT JET 
CORE SE OF CYCLONE FEED ITCZ CONVECTION WITH HELP OF WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 120W FROM 04N-11N.  MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE WITH ANTICYCLONE AT 10N119W EXTEND TO 32N109W.  FURTHER 
DOWNSTREAM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM GULF OF MXICO ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO TO 07N110W MAINTAIN WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT E OF 
AXIS.  VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS ALOFT N OF 09N E OF 110W.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 120W UNDER VERY FAVORABLE UPPER CONDITIONS 
TO STRENGTHEN...GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE ANYTHING STRONGER.
 
LARGE 1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N156W KEEP STEADY STREAM 
OF FRESH NE TRADES W OF 120W THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. ASSOCIATED 
RIDGE EXTEND E TO BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST AND INCREASE SW FLOW 
AS THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG MEXICO W COAST THU.  LARGE LONG 
PERIOD SWELLS SPREAD SE CAUSED BY HIGH PRES LONG FETCH. 


WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED BELOW 20 KT BY WED.  
LITTLE CHANGE IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE FRESH BREEZE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES