000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291018 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON MAR 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE FROM 04N77W TO 05N93W TO 03N110W TO 06N129W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 138W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING AWAY FROM OF THE ITCZ FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS DIMINISHED TO A WEAK SHEAR LINE OVER THE NW WATERS OVERNIGHT HAS BROUGHT NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 10 FT ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SHIP A8ID9 REPORTED 10 FT NEAR 26N135W AT 0900 UTC. THIS SUGGESTS THE WW3 MODEL MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGH AS THIS AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WAVE MODEL. THIS SWELL WILL SLOWLY DAMPEN AS IT PROPAGATES SE THROUGH N WATERS AND ACROSS THE TRADE WIND REGION TO THE EQUATOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NEW COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FOUND OVER THE NE PACIFIC N OF THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA TUE...BUT WILL BRING A NEW PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL...WITH SEAS 15 TO 18 FT AT WAVE PERIODS OF 15 TO 16 SECOND RANGE ENTERING THE NW WATERS TUE MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 1025 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 30N131W IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 22N AND W OF 130W. THIS HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT W ALONG 30N AND WILL MERGE WITH NEW HIGH PRES W OF THE AREA FOUND BEHIND THE NEW COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE TRADE WIND AREA WILL SHIFT W AND EXPAND N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1025 MB HIGH AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL HAS GENERATED WINDS OF 20-25 KT ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 23N AND ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 26N. WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY TUE MORNING AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH REORGANIZES TO THE W WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN TO 20 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF N PORTIONS BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. TROPICS... AN EQUATORIAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LOW LIES NEAR 01.5N124W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS REFLECTED UNDERNEATH THIS LOW EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. CONVECTION INVOF THE TROUGH IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE DIFFLUENT REGION BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND SW OF THE JET TO ITS SE ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONVERGING NEAR THE TROUGH AND N OF THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA...AS THE FRESH NE TRADES PERSIST IN THIS REGION. THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT N OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FARTHER E...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS JUST BEGUN TO INCREASE E OF 100W...EXITING COLOMBIA. GAP WINDS... WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN AROUND 20 KT IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA THROUGH WED MORNING...A NEW COLD FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS USHERED IN NLY GALES THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE WINDS WILL REACH NEAR STORM FORCE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS SAME COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA ON TUE AND BRING WINDS BACK TO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING