000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290302
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE 
FROM 06N77W TO 04N95W TO 08N110W TO 06N122W TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM S OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 129W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG WAS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
109W AND 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N 
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 137W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT DISSIPATED OVER NW WATERS EARLIER THIS 
EVENING HAS BROUGHT NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 
15 FT TO THE AREA. SHIPS A8RH7 REPORTING 7 FT NEAR 23N140W AND 
WHRN REPORTING 13 FT NEAR 29N141W AT 0000 UTC SUGGEST THE WW3 
MODEL MAY BE SLIGHTLY FAST BRINGING THIS SWELL SOUTHEASTWARD. 
THIS SWELL WILL DAMPEN AS IT PROPAGATES SE THROUGH N WATERS AND 
THE TRADE WIND REGION TO THE EQUATOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A 
NEW COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FOUND OVER THE EASTERN N PACIFIC N 
OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA TUE...BUT 
WILL BRING A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL...WITH SEAS TO 18 FT AND WAVE 
PERIODS IN THE 15 TO 16 SECOND RANGE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE ITCZ AND 1025 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 31N127W IS 
MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS 
GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 20N AND W OF 122W. THIS HIGH PRES CENTER 
WILL SHIFT W ALONG 30N AND WILL MERGE WITH NEW HIGH PRES W OF 
THE AREA FOUND BEHIND THE NEW COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE TRADE WIND AREA WILL SHIFT W AND EXPAND 
N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE 1025 MB HIGH AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG THE W 
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL HAS GENERATED WINDS OF 
20-25 KT ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 23N AND 
ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 26N. SHIPS C6FR3 NEAR 
26N114W AND ZCDG7 NEAR 27N115W BOTH REPORTED 21 KT AT 0100 AND 
0000 UTC...RESPECTIVELY. WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY TUE MORNING AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH 
REORGANIZES TO THE W WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT...BUT WINDS 
WILL REMAIN TO 20 KT ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF 
THE PERIOD TUE NIGHT.

TROPICS...
AN UPPER LOW LIES NEAR 03N125W. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF 
THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AROUND 130W. CONVECTION NEAR 
THE TROUGH IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. THE STRONGEST 
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE DIFFLUENT REGION 
BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND SW JET TO ITS E ORIGINATING IN THE 
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTIFUL 
MOISTURE CONVERGED NEAR THE TROUGH AND ITCZ IN THIS AREA. THIS 
LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT N OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TO 
THE SE OF THE UPPER LOW LIES THAT 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER 
JET WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING CONVECTION N 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 109W AND 119W. FARTHER E...LOW TO MID LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL ALONG THE ITCZ AND THERE IS LITTLE 
TO NO CONVECTION DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 06N86W. 

GAP WINDS...
WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN THE GULFS OF 
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA MON MORNING...A NEW COLD FRONT CURRENTLY 
PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL USHER IN GALE FORCE 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE WINDS WILL REACH NEAR 
STORM FORCE MON AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
FORCE BY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS SAME COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING 20 
KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA ON TUE AND BRING WINDS BACK 
TO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SCHAUER