000 AXPZ20 KNHC 282140 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN MAR 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2000 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE FROM 06N77W TO 05N95W TO 10N110W TO 04N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 123W. A TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 08N127W TO 02N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 04N AND WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE TROUGH N OF 05N. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER NW WATERS HAS BROUGHT NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 17 FT TO THE AREA. THIS SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE THROUGH N WATERS AND THE TRADE WIND REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SECOND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FOUND OVER THE EASTERN N PACIFIC N OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA TUE...BUT WILL BRING A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL...WITH SEAS TO 18 FT AND WAVE PERIODS IN THE 15 TO 16 SECOND RANGE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 1025 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 32N127W IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 21N AND W OF 120W. THIS HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT W ALONG 30N AS THE FRONT OVER NW WATERS DISSIPATES AND WILL MERGE WITH NEW HIGH PRES W OF THE AREA FOUND BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1025 MB HIGH AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL HAS GENERATED WINDS OF 20-25 KT ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 23N. WINDS HERE WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY TUE MORNING AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH REORGANIZES W WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT. TROPICS... AN UPPER LOW LIES NEAR 03N123W. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AROUND 128W. CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE CONVERGED NEAR THE TROUGH AND ITCZ IN THIS AREA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT N OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LOW LIES A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W AND 123W. FARTHER E...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL ALONG THE ITCZ AND THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 90W MON AND TUE. GAP WINDS... WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA MON MORNING...A NEW COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL USHER IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. N TO NE WINDS WILL REACH NEAR STORM FORCE MON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY TUE AFTERNOON. THIS SAME COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA ON TUE AND BRING WINDS BACK TO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER