000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281011
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 03N77W TO 05N92W TO 08.5N105W TO 07N123W TO 
02N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING 
WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 133W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 116W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
A LARGE AND VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR 
NE PACIFIC EXTENDS INTO S INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N126W AND MERGING 
WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 22N137W THAT 
CONTINUED SW AS A DEEP LAYERED TUTT AXIS TO A FEW DEGREES SE OF 
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. S OF THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
LIES THE SUBTROPICAL JET TRANSPORTING A 5-6 DEGREE PLUME OF 
ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 16N140W TO 25N112W ACROSS SRN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN E ACROSS N MEXICO AND THE NRN GULF OF 
MEXICO. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS WITHIN THE JET RANGED FROM 
70 TO 105 KNOT. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ MENTIONED 
ABOVE WAS AIDING IN A PERSIST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE S OF THIS JET 
AND CENTERED OVER THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. JUST TO THE NW 
OF THE STRONGEST ITCZ CONVECTION WAS A BROAD BUT SHORT NEGATIVE 
TILT MID TO UPPER TROUGH S OF 13N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. THIS 
WAS REFLECTED IN THE LOW LEVELS BY A BROAD AND WEAK INVERTED 
TROUGH,. AT THE SURFACE...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1025 MB 
HIGH NEAR 35N125W AND THE ITCZ WAS YIELDING A BROAD FIELD OF 
20-25 KT NE WINDS S OF 22N AND W OF 126W. SEAS ACROSS THE REGION 
WERE RUNNING 8 TO 11 FEET IN NE WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL...AND WILL GENERALLY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS 
THIS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING THE NW PORTIONS 
HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS...BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A NEXT 
PULSE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...WITH SEAS IN THIS FAR NW PORTION 
CURRENTLY 9 TO 17 FT. THIS SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE AND COVER THE 
NW HALF OF THE AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1025 MB HIGH AND THERMAL TROUGHING 
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES HAS INDUCED A FRESH NNW FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OF 20-25 KT...THAT MAY INCREASE 
TO NEAR 30 KT IN ISOLATED SPOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL 
GRADUALLY BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THE BASIN 
DURING THIS TIME.

E OF 100W...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FAR EPAC 
AS CONVERGENCE ALOFT PERSISTS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE 
NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE WRN CARIBBEAN BY 24 HOURS AND 
INDUCE A GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THAT IS EXPECTED 
TO LAST 24 HOURS. WINDS THERE MAY REACH 45 KT MONDAY MORNING. 
ELY WINDS OF AROUND 20 KT WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
STRIPLING