000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262146 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI MAR 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2000 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 05N77W TO 06N95W TO 05N115W TO 06N123W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 87W AS WELL AS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. A TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 10N105W TO 02N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM W AND 420 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 05N. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... ZONAL FLOW TO 100 KT PREVAILS ALOFT IN WATERS N OF 15N AT THE MOMENT. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NW WATERS WILL BE REINFORCED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SHIFTING THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 10N140W INTO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUN AFTERNOON AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS SAT NIGHT AND WILL BRING A NEW SURGE OF NW SWELL INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 16 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 37N128W IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS GENERALLY FROM 04N TO 24N AND W OF 125W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. THE HIGH PRES CENTER WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW AND SHIFT S AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO NW WATERS. THIS WILL REDUCE THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES. IN ADDITION...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WILL MAINTAIN WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH SAT MORNING...THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS BUT INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON SUN AFTERNOON. TROPICS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH EAST PACIFIC. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE W ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 10N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 82W AND 87W LIES IN A REGION OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT. A POOL OF MOISTURE IS CONVERGED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN IT MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER W...AN UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM 14N140W TO 00N130W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS FOUND W OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND COINCIDES WITH THE ITCZ NEAR 115W-125W WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED. GAP WINDS... THE 1620 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED N TO NE WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND SHIP 3FBE8 NEAR 14N96W REPORTED 23 KT WINDS AT 1700 UTC. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A ROPE CLOUD AS MUCH AS 300 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TURNING THE WINDS MORE EASTERLY. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT STRONG N WINDS TO TEHUANTEPEC WILL NOT DIP AS FAR S AS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BUT IT WILL FORCE THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF IT. AS A RESULT...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. THIS WILL INDUCE 20-25 KT GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. N TO NE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER