000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261534 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI MAR 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 05N77W TO 08N95W TO 06N110W TO 04N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 118W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG LINE 07N122W TO 05N125W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N E OF 80W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS N OF 14N WHILE A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM PASSES ACROSS AND S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 19N140W THEN CONTINUING E-NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND N MEXICO INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS SOMEWHAT CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...WITH SW TO W FLOW FROM THE BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET TRANSPORTING A WIDE BAND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FROM 20N TO 28N...OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND N MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 06N126W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ PARTICULARLY W OF 100W. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N130W IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS GENERALLY S OF 28N AND W OF 120W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 9 TO 13 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL. BOTH...A WINDSAT PASS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING CORROBORATED THESE WIND SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NE...SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH SAT MORNING AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...FORCING FRESH TRADES TO S OF 15N. IN ADDITION...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WILL MAINTAIN NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH SAT MORNING...THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ONE IS ALONG 106W/107W FROM 3N TO 11N. ANOTHER EXTENDS FROM 8N121W TO 3N124W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH N OF 7N. REGIONAL SEAS W OF 110W ARE MAINLY DOMINATING BY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WITH PERIOD IN THE 15-16 SECOND RANGE WILL FOLLOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 15 FT ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUN MORNING. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ARE PROPAGATING NWD ACROSS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. GAP WINDS... WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN IN 24 HOURS. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. A JASON PASS JUST OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOWED SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT. FIRST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED ROPE CLOUD MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH LIKELY DELINEATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT GAP WIND EVENT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR