000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260951 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI MAR 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 04.5N77W TO 04.5N80W TO 08N88W TO 05N105W TO 05N122W TO 03N130W TO 03.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM S AND 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 125W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS N OF 14N WHILE A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM PASSES ACROSS AND S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THE SPLITS NEAR 15N137W...WITH ONE PORTIONS DIVERTS NE TO 20N THEN CONTINUES E-NE ACROSS THE S HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE SECOND PORTION DIVES SE TO THE ITCZ ALONG 140W AND CONTINUES SE ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND UNDERNEATH A SRN HEMI EQUATORIAL RIDGE ALONG 130W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS SOMEWHAT CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW WAS ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA...WITH THE DIVERTED W TO S-SW FLOW FROM THE DIVERTED N PORTION OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET TRANSPORTING A WIDE BAND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FROM 20N TO 28N...OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND N MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...ACTIVE ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 100W AND 120W WAS MAINTAINING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN 06N AND 11N...THAT WAS CONNECTING WITH BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN. N OF THIS RIDGING OVER THE ITCZ WAS A 5-8 DEGREE WIDE ZONE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 36N139W IS MAINTAINING A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS GENERALLY S OF 28N AND W OF 120W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 9 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL. THIS HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NE...SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH SAT MORNING AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THERMAL TROUGHING PERSISTS ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FORCING FRESH TRADES TO S OF 15N. IN ADDITION...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADAS AND THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES WILL MAINTAIN NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH SAT MORNING...THEN WEAKEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GAP WINDS... WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT...BUT ARE EXPECTED INCREASE AGAIN IN 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NW HALF OF GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOVED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...RESULTING IN NLY WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20-25 KT DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND PRODUCE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING