000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 05N77W TO 09N91W TO 03N110W 04N124W TO 
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W...AND FROM 05N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 113 AND 120W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 
120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 136W...AND NEAR 02N115W.

...DISCUSSION...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE N WATERS N 
OF 14N WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF 
THE AREA. THE WLY FLOW IS TRANSPORTING A WIDE BAND OF MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FROM 20N TO 
28N...INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. BETWEEN 
THIS BAND OF MOISTURE AND THE ITCZ...A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS CAN BE 
FOUND W OF 110W. 

IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
EL SALVADOR EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 05N120W. ANOTHER RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE RIDGES ARE 
HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ PARTICULARLY W OF 
110W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NW OF THE AREA 
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N AND W 
115W. A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IS NOTED PER 
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. 
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E TO JUST N OF THE AREA AND 
MAINTAIN THIS COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CONUS AND NORTHERN 
MEXICO WILL PRODUCE NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KT NEAR THE WEST COAST 
OF NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. 

GAP WINDS
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND ARE 
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS BUT WILL INCREASE 
AGAIN IN 48 HOURS. 

CURRENTLY...WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PANAMA. 

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. AS THE 
FRONT PASSES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI MORNING. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR