000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 07N96W TO 04N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS FROM 92W-102W 
AND 120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 112W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS 
ACROSS MEXICO SW TO 10N118W.  VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS WITHIN 
10 DEG W OF AXIS MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS N OF 10N W OF 110W 
ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT RIDING 95 KT JET CORE N OF 20N 
W OF 120W.

ILL-DEFINED RIDGE CREST ALONG 122W CARRIES MOISTURE INTO 
NORTHERN HALF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THERE ID LITTLE IN 
THE WAY OF MECHANICAL LIFTING TO WARRANT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL 
EVENT.  ANTICYCLONIC GYRE AT 11N89W ADVECTS ITCZ CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS N-NE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF 
OF MEXICO MAKING IT AVAILABLE FOR COLD FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING SE 
ACROSS TEXAS.  FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW LIKELY TO PROMPT 
SEVERE WEATHER ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.      

AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK COLD FRONT LIFTED NE OF AREA AS HIGH PRES 1030 MB TAKES 
OVER BASIN.  FRESH NW-N BREEZE EXPECTED ALONG BOTH COASTS OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS E OVERLAND. 

FRESH NE TRADES W OF 130W WEAKEN FRI AS PRES GRADIENT EASES WITH 
RIDGE MOVING E.  NWW3 SOLUTION BRINGS GRADUAL DECAY OF NW LONG 
PERIOD SWELL. 

GAP WINDS
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONTINUE ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 
TODAY THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS WESTERN CARIBBEAN TRADES EASE.

FRESH N BREEZE CONTINUE OVER GULF OF PANAMA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT LATER TODAY.

COLD FRONT MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS GULF OF 
MEXICO.  HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT FORECAST TO FORCE N WINDS ACROSS 
ISTHMUS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG N 
WINDS BY FRI. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES