000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250434
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 03N81W TO 06.5N96W TO 02N112W TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS W OF 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO SW TO 
14N111W. ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA 
N OF 14. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 130W AND 
BETWEEN 90W AND 102W IS MAINTAINING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG 
08N. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS NOTED BETWEEN 110W AND 120W DUE 
TO A LACK OF ITCZ CONVECTION AND RESULTING LACK OF UPPER LEVEL 
DIVERGENT FLOW. SW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION W 
OF 130W NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. 

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE 
AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS PROVIDED THE ELY MOMENTUM 
TO THE COLD FRONT IS N OF THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT 
OUT. AS A RESULT...THIS FRONT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS 
AND DISSIPATE BY FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE 1029 MB LOCATED NW 
OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS FEATURE AND THE ITCZ TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 
06N TO 20N W OF 124W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E TO JUST N 
OF THE AREA AND MAINTAIN THIS COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

GAP WINDS
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. AS 
THE TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
..WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... 
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 KT THU AFTERNOON.

WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS 
WILL ALSO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THU MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON THU AND MOVE 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE FRONT PASSES THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE...WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
INCREASE. THIS WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI MORNING. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AL