000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242127
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 04N77W TO 03N81W TO 06.5N95W TO 02N112W TO 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N AND 90 NM 
S OF AXIS E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM N AND 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 102W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 240 NM S OF AXIS W OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO SW TO 
12N113W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS 
TROUGH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SW FLOW ON THE E SIDE 
OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 
ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 132W NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. 

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED INTO THE FAR NW 
PART OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS PROVIDED THE 
ELY MOMENTUM TO THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT. AS A 
RESULT...THIS FRONT WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS AND 
DISSIPATE BY FRI. WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 28N135W 
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE ITCZ TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 123W. THE HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED 
ABOVE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD JUST N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE 
STALLING FRONT AND MAINTAIN THE COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE STRONG 
NE WINDS FLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
DOWNSTREAM...MENTIONED BELOW...IS PRODUCING ENOUGH MOISTURE 
CONVERGENCE INTO THE ITCZ TO MAINTAIN ACTIVE CONVECTION BETWEEN 
88W AND 102W. 

GAP WINDS
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS 
INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. AS THE TRADES OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WINDS WILL ALSO 
DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 
KT THU AFTERNOON.

LATEST ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF 
PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE BELOW 20 KT THU AS THE 
TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN DIMINISH AND WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE 
GULF OF PANAMA DIMINISH. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AL