000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230355
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAR 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 04N120W TO 05N130W TO 03N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 140 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 114W AND 121W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION NEAR 05N125W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N124W HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE 
FORECAST WATERS TO 15N130W. SW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS 
ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED ALONG 
AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A 
SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 124W FROM 23N TO 28N. THE SFC 
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 
HOURS.  

IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
12N101W EXTENDS A RIDGE EWD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE ANOTHER 
RIDGE STRETCHES WWD TO NEAR 8N123W. A DIFFLUENT PATTER ALOFT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ MAINLY ON ITS WEST SIDE. THE FAR SW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA IS ALSO DOMINATING BY A RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN 
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR 6N143W. 

AT THE SURFACE A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE 
OVER THE N WATERS COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. 
THIS HIGH PRES IS MAINTAINING A LARGER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES FROM 04N TO 20N W OF 130W. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF TRADES 
GREATER THAN 20 KT WILL DECREASE IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THIS 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE FORECAST WATERS AND WEAKENS. 
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF 
THE FORECAST REGION IN 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A NEW BATCH OF NW 
SWELL.  

REGIONAL SEAS ARE DOMINATED BY NW SWELL AND CROSS EQUATORIAL 
LONG PERIOD...18 TO 20 SECONDS...SW SWELL. NOAA WAVE WATCH 
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SWELL EVENT IS REACHING THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF MEXICO S OF 23N.  

GAP WINDS...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AS WINDS ARE VEERING TO THE E AND SE ACROSS THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS 
BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS. 

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT 
AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL 
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WINDS ARE GREATEST 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF 
DRAINAGE FLOW. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR