000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222119 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON MAR 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 06N77W TO 05N95W TO 06N110W TO 04N120W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM S OF AXIS E OF 82W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 118W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N125W HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST WATERS TO 15N130W. SW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 125W N OF 25N. AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS SHOWED N WINDS OF 20 KT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH PARTICULARLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 126W AND 132W. THE SFC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N103W EXTENDS A RIDGE EWD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE STRETCHES WWD TO NEAR 8N126W. A DIFFLUENT PATTER ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS ALSO DOMINATING BY A RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF AREA NEAR 38N133W IS MAINTAINING A LARGER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 04N TO 20N W OF 130W. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF TRADES GREATER THAN 20 KT WILL DECREASE IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE FORECAST WATERS AND WEAKENS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA IN 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL. REGIONAL SEAS ARE DOMINATED BY NW SWELL AND CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD...18 TO 20 SECONDS...SW SWELL. NOAA WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SWELL EVENT IS REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO S OF 23N. GAP WINDS... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHIP DHDE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A ROPE CLOUD THAT NORMALLY DELINEATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE GAP WIND EVENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS FURTHER E. AS THE SAME COLD AIR MASS REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR