000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 04N98W TO 05N111W TO 03N124W TO 03N137W TO 
041N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
90 NM OF AXIS FROM 82W TO 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS SW FROM 32N130W TO 
16N140W WITH VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS W OF AXIS.  SW JET CORE
WITH 125 KT ADVECTS LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS 
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO OVER CREST OF DOWNSTREAM 
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 110W FROM ANTICYCLONE AT 09N107W.  FURTHER 
E...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER SE 
CONUS EXTEND OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO E PAC TO 09N97W.  AREA 
OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS ACTIVE SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ E OF 104W.  

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1029 MB WELL N OF BASIN MAINTAINS STEADY FLOW OF FRESH 
TRADES W OF 130W FROM 06N-18N AND ALSO FRESH NW ALONG BOTH BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COASTS N OF 24N...ALL EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS RIDGE 
MOVES E AND WEAKENS TO 1020 MB TUE.  NEVERTHELESS...LARGE LONG 
PERIOD SWELLS PRODUCED BY RIDGE LONG FETCH ARE FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE IMPACTING E PAC W OF 110W.  

ITCZ BECOMING MORE ACTIVE DUE TO AREA OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT 
FLOW BETWEEN EASTERNMOST TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA... 
BUT NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THESE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS 
FAVORABLE WITHIN NEXT 48 HRS.

...GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE WINDS CONFIRMED BY ASCAT AND SHIP 
REPORTS.  GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE SHORT LIVED GALE EVENT 
AS HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO QUICKLY VEERS FLOW AND CUTS OFF 
WIND OVER ISTHMUS.  GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD END EARLY TUE AND 
GET BELOW 20 KT BY LATE TUE. 

SAME COLD AIR MASS REACHES NW CARIBBEAN SEA...GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
GAP WINDS SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN 12-18 HRS AND BECOME STRONG TO 
NEAR GALE FORCE BY LATE TUE.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES