000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220356
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAR 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 05N105W TO 03N117W TO 01N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 84W AND 96W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA AT 34N143W. 
ONLY MODEST TRADEWINDS OF 20 KT W OF 135W BETWEEN 6N AND 15N ARE 
OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH 
AND THE LOW PRESSURE OF THE ITCZ.  A DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ALONG OUR NW BORDER WITH SOME 20 TO 25 KT N 
WINDS BEHIND IT...WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND NO DEEP 
CONVECTION.  A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 132W BETWEEN 20 AND 28N DOES 
HAVE MORE RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED DEEP CONVECTION.  THE ITCZ 
IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH NOTEWORTHY DEEP CONVECTION... 
ESPECIALLY EAST OF 96W.  A TROUGH INDICATED ALONG THE 
ITCZ...HOWEVER...HAS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND POSES 
LITTLE THREAT OF DEVELOPING INTO A PRE-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE.

...GAP WINDS...
A GALE FORCE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS ONGOING...AS CONFIRMED 
BY THE 00 UTC 35 KT OFFSHORE NORTHERLY AT SALINA CRUZ MEXICO.  
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM ALL HAVE A 40 KT MAX SURFACE WIND 
CURRENTLY...BUT IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER.  THE SURFACE HIGH 
CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY 
EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND THE EVENT SHOULD GO BELOW GALE FORCE BY  
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FUNNELING OF WINDS ACROSS THE CHIVELA 
PASS WEAKENS.  THE EVENT SHOULD COMPLETELY WEAKEN BELOW OUR 20 
KT CRITERION BY TUESDAY EVENING.

AS THE SAME COLD AIR MASS HAS REACHED THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA... 
PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS WEST OF NICARAGUA SHOULD COMMENCE SHORTLY.  
BOTH THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF RUNS SHOW THESE WINDS PEAKING AT 
30 KT TUESDAY...SO IT IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THESE COULD REACH 
GALE FORCE...BUT THIS IS NOT CALLED FOR IN THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  

FINALLY...MODEST...20 TO 25 KT...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY 
OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT NO INSITU MEASUREMENTS 
ARE AVAILABLE. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW OUR 20 KT CRITERION 
WITHIN 18 HOURS OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA