000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN MAR 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 05N78W TO 06N103W TO 03N116W TO 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W TO 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 93W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING 1024 MB HIGH IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AT 32N127W. ONLY MODEST TRADEWINDS OF 20 KT W OF 123W BETWEEN 6N AND 11N ARE OCCURRING AS A RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW PRESSURE OF THE ITCZ. A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY IS DRAPED ALONG OUR NW BORDER WITH SOME 20 TO 25 KT N WINDS BEHIND IT...WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND NO DEEP CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 132W BETWEEN 20 AND 28N DOES HAVE MORE RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED DEEP CONVECTION. THE ITCZ IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH NOTEWORTHY DEEP CONVECTION... ESPECIALLY EAST OF 93W. THE TWO TROUGHS INDICATED ALONG THE ITCZ...HOWEVER...HAVE VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND POSE LITTLE THREAT OF DEVELOPING INTO A PRE-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE. ...GAP WINDS... A GALE FORCE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS ONGOING...AS CONFIRMED BY THE 1624 UTC ASCAT HI RES PASS SHOWING 35 KT NORTHERLIES AS WELL AS THE 20 UTC 30 KT OFFSHORE NORTHERLY AT SALINA CRUZ MEXICO. GIVEN ASCAT'S LOW BIAS...AM GOING WITH 40 KT MAX SURFACE WIND IN EVENT THOUGH IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER. AM ALSO BOOSTING A COUPLE OF FEET THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FROM THE WAVEWATCH III BASED OFF OF THE GFS. THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOMORROW AND THE EVENT SHOULD GO BELOW GALE FORCE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FUNNELING OF WINDS ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS WEAKENS. THE EVENT SHOULD COMPLETELY WEAKEN BELOW OUR 20 KT CRITERION BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS THE SAME COLD AIR MASS REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA LATE TONIGHT...PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS WEST OF NICARAGUA SHOULD COMMENCE. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS SHOW THESE WINDS PEAKING AT 30 KT TUESDAY...SO IT IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THESE COULD REACH GALE FORCE...BUT THIS IS NOT CALLED FOR IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FINALLY...WEAK...20 TO 25 KT...SURFACE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS SHOWN BY AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW OUR 20 KT CRITERION WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA