000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200356 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT MAR 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 00N80W TO 04N96W TO 05N115W TO 04N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1021 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 31N129W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOCALLY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PORTION OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING A FAIRLY SMALL AREA OF 20 KT TRADEWINDS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AT 117W SOUTH OF 10N HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED ON THE 00 UTC SURFACE MAP...WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT. DESPITE THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...FURTHER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY DUE TO LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE VORTICITY. A SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS HAS ENTERED THE NW PART OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL PROPAGATE S AND E THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GAP WINDS... A NEW TEHUANTEPEC EVENT..LIKELY TO BECOME GALE FORCE...IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM ALL SHOW EXPLICIT 35 KT 10 M WINDS BY 18 UTC SUNDAY. BY EARLY MONDAY THE EVENT MAY BE APPROACHING STORM STRENGTH. THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT PEAKS THE EVENT AT 45 KT AT THE 00 UTC MONDAY END POINT OF THE PRODUCT. BOTH THE PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. VIRTUALLY NO OBSERVATIONS...SHIP...BUOY... SCATTEROMETER...AND TOPEX WERE AVAILABLE THIS EVENING TO COMPARE WITH THE VARIOUS MODELS FOR THESE GAP WIND EVENTS. THUS MORE RELIANCE THAN USUAL IS BEING PLACED UPON THE GFS AND ASSOCIATED WAVEWATCH III. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA