000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 02N79W TO 05N88W TO 02N98W TO 05.5N112W TO 01N126W TO 
02N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS 
AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W 
AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM 
N OF AXIS AND 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STARTING TO LIFT OUT N 
OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS IN THE FAR NW 
PART OF THE AREA...BUT WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL NOT PUSH 
VERY FAR INTO THE AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING.  WITH THE TROUGH 
LIFTING OUT...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER 
LEVELS N OF 15N.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE DEEP 
TROPICS. 

AT THE SURFACE...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE 1022 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 30N129W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOCALLY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PORTION OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING 20 KT 
TRADES FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 131W. THE LOCALLY HIGHER 
TRADES ARE MAINTAINING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE 
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 116W AND 124W. 

NW SWELLS PREVAILING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS HAS 
ENTERED THE NW PART OF THE AREA...AND WILL PROPAGATE S AND E 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

GAP WINDS...
WHILE A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENT ENDED TODAY...A NEW 
ONE...LIKELY TO BECOME GALE FORCE...IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY.  
THE ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM ALL SHOW EXPLICIT 35 KT 10 M WINDS BY 
18 UTC SUNDAY.  THE EVENT SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY...BUT AT THIS 
POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WILL REACH STORM STRENGTH.

BOTH THE PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON 
SATURDAY.  A FORTUITOUS ASCAT PASS AT 1526 UTC SHOWED THE EXTENT 
OF THE 20 KT WINDS FOR BOTH OF THESE GAP WIND EVENTS THAT WAS 
UTILIZED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...WHILE A TOPEX PASS AT 15 
UTC REVEALED SEAS UP TO 11 FT ASSOCIATED THE PAPAGAYO EVENT JUST 
SOUTHWEST OF NICARAGUA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA/AL