000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190949
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 05N86W TO 02N97W TO 07N113W TO 01N133W TO 
02N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
180 NM OF AXIS FROM 113W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL N OF 10N WITH 
SUBTLE RIDGING W OF 120W AND A NOT WELL DEFINED TROUGH ALONG  
110W.  AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY N OF 10N ACROSS ENTIRE E PAC. 
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 147W APPROACHING W 
BORDER OF BASIN WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DUE TO ENTER FRI. 
COLD FRONT BRINGS ONLY HINT OF MOISTURE INTO BASIN BUT SHOULD 
LIKELY LOSE IT AS FRONT SHIFT N OF AREA AS 1020 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTER BLOCKS ANY SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION SOUTHWARD.  FRONT MOVES 
E WHILE N OF 25N AND LOSES ITS STRONG WINDS AS UPPER LEVEL 
ENERGY SUPPORT PULLS AWAY TO THE NE.

WEAK ANTICYCLONE AT 05119W PROVIDES SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ FROM 113W-130W.  WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVING E AWAY FROM BASIN.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1020 MB AT 33N132W MOVES TO 30N128W FRI SQUEEZED BY 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT INCREASING NW WINDS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
BY LATE SAT.  FRONT INTRODUCES FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS WHICH 
SHIFT NW BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN VEER NE AND DIMINISH SAT.

GAP WINDS...
STRONG N WINDS NOW IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT 
ONLY TO RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE...LIKELY AT GALE FORCE...BEYOND 
THE 48 HRS FORECAST PERIOD.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE-E WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES