000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 6N78W 4N95W 6N110W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM  84W-90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
FROM 121W-125W AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM
127W-133W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 134W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
IS N OF W OF 125W. A SHARP TROUGH IS W OF THE AREA AND IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE E AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. A 100-105 KT JET STREAM ENTERS THE
AREA AT 26N140W TO 29N125W WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 120 KT THEN
INTO THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DOMINATES A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA 
N OF 10N W OF 105W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE WITH
AXIS FROM 32N120W TO 26N125W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM NEW MEXICO/MEXICO BORDER ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO 
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE SW PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS ENHANCING STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ W OF AROUND 125W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA
W TO 5N115W.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 105W. TRADES 
ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE ARE 20 KT FROM 5N-25N W OF 135W AND FROM 
6N-15N BETWEEN 125W-135W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
THE ITCZ FROM 9N-5N ALONG 109W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE TROUGH.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS 
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND TIGHTENS 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY 
DROP BELOW 20 KT FRI AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO BLOWING
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS