000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162129
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2000 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W TO 
03N85W TO 06N105W TO 04N115W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS 
E OF 87W AND WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 
84W. A TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 106W FROM 02N TO 
09N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM E 
AND 390 NM W OF THE TROUGH N OF 05N AND WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE 
TROUGH S OF 03N.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 25N W OF 125W. A 100-120 KT JETSTREAM IS S 
OF THE TROUGH ALONG 26N W OF 130W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 125W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS 
WITHIN THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS NW MEXICO TO THE 
MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW SE OF THE TROUGH IS 
ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL 
MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 07N95W...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE 
E INTO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA/NW PANAMA. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHILE 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR THE ITCZ E 
OF 87W UNDER THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT.

STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 26N140W. NE WINDS OF 
20-25 KT WERE W OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS 14 TO 17 FT IN 
NW SWELL. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. 
OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. 
TRADES AT 20 KT ARE FROM 05N-20N OVER WATERS PRIMARILY W OF 130W 
WITH MIXED SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN NW...NE AND SW SWELL. A COUPLE OF 
TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST ALONG 106W AND 
THE SECOND ALONG 123W. THE EASTERN TROUGH HAS SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR ITS AXIS. SEE THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE 
FOR DETAILS.

GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
ABOVE 20 KT THIS EVENING AND THEN BLAST QUICKLY TO GALE FORCE IN 
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS 
BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TIGHTENS THE 
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING...WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR 
STORM FORCE ON WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB/SCHAUER