000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 4N77W 5N100W 4N115W 4N140W. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 83W TO 86W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 26N W OF 135W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A 95-105 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 25N140W TO 25N130W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-130W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE IS WITHIN THE RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER W TEXAS ACROSS NW 
MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. SW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH 
IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.
IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
7N95W...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ENE TO 
NICARAGUA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE ITCZ.

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 24N140W. NE WINDS TO 20 KT W 
OF THE COLD. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE A 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. TRADES AT 20 
KT ARE FROM 7N-20N W OF 120W. A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED 
ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST FROM 7N101W TO 1N106W...A FEW SHOWERS 
ARE ALONG THE TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1N-8N ALONG 
122W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.

WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE 
FORCE EARLY WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN 
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS