000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152202 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON MAR 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 06N88W TO 05N82W TO 06N105W TO 05N110W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 79W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 138W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... A STRONG UPPER LOW LIES ALONG THE BORDER OF TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW THROUGH NW MEXICO TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE SYSTEM NEAR 22N115W AND THEN TO 15N119W. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW LIES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 25N101W ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW. THE INCREASED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS WELL AS THE 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N130W AND THIS LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IN ADDITION TO THE LOW PRES OVER THE W SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL HAS INDUCED 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 20 KT WINDS WERE REPORTED AT LORETO...MEXICO AT 2100 UTC AND THE 1646 UTC ASCAT PASS SAW WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WED AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN...DECREASING THE PRES GRADIENT. ALOFT...THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET JUST S OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 KT IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO W CENTRAL AND NE MEXICO...WITH A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS FOUND WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N113W TO 22N100W. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT IS ATTEMPTING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE N PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NE TO THE ANCHOR LOW. HOWEVER...THE BROAD DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NW WATERS WILL SEND ITS LEADING EDGE EASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AND NE FORECAST WATERS TUE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO ITS E TO PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND NW MEXICO WHICH WILL HELP SHOVE MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LINGERING OVER NE WATERS EASTWARD. THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH HAS WEAKENED AND WILL MERGE TOMORROW WITH THE HIGH PRES W OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER FAR NW WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT HAD BEEN IN PLACE FOR DAYS HAVE WEAKENED TO FRESH TRADES OVER WATERS W OF 123W ACCORDING TO THE 1830 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE AREA OF TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE COLD FRONT OVER NW WATERS HAS NW WINDS BEHIND IT AT 20 KT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AS HIGH AS 17 FT OVER THE NW WATERS TUE EVENING. DEEP TROPICS... A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS ARE PASSING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE HELPED INDUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 01N94W WHILE THE EASTERN SHORTWAVE IS INTERSECTING THE REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOSITURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ AND HAS GENERATED SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 79W AND 83W. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM 06N107W TO NICARAGUA IS SEPARATED FROM A WEAK ANTICYCLONE NEAR 03N128W BY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 116W S OF 08N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 138W UNDER THE DIFFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN ANTICYCLONE DOWNSTREAM. GAP WINDS... ASIDE FROM THE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LOOK FOR N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REACH JUST BELOW STORM FORCE ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER