000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151552
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 06N107W TO 04N114W TO 04N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 
79W AND FROM 133W-136W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 34N107W HAS TROUGH EXTEND 
SW TO 14N127W.  VERY DRY STABLE AIR MASS W OF TROUGH AXIS.  GFS 
GUIDANCE DEVELOP NEW CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 20N120W AND 
MOVE IT E ACROSS TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO CENTRAL MEXICO 
FORCED BY SHARP RIDGE CREST NOW ALONG 125W.  REMNANTS OF COLD 
FRONT ACROSS GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALONG 24N PUSHES E OF AREA THIS 
AFTERNOON...BUT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WITH 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH 
PRES NEAR 33N142W MAINTAIN FRESH NW BREEZE OVER GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA.  

MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 07N102W TRAP 80-90 KT SW JET 
STREAM ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE S OF ABOVE MENTIONED 
COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.  THIS COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS 
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND TEXAS TONIGHT AND TUE.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES FROM 07N-17N W OF 128W.  WINDS DIMINISH AS CENTER 
MOVES E FORCED BY APPROACHING COLD FRONT ENTERING E PAC AND 
REACHING FROM 30N137W TO 26N140W TONIGHT.  FRONT LOSES ITS PUNCH 
WITHIN 48 HRS AS UPPER SUPPORT PULLS AWAY...BUT STRONG HIGH PRES 
BEHIND IT WELL N OF AREA FORCES LONG FETCHED NW SWELLS SPREAD SE 
ACROSS BASIN.  FRONT MARKS LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER SURGE OF 
LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS.  GUIDANCE SHOWED SEAS UP TO 17 FT 
BEHIND FRONT BEGINNING IN 24 HRS AND DECAYING THEREAFTER.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WED WITH SPEEDS 
REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE AT END OF AND BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD AS 
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OVER GULF OF MEXICO FORCING WINDS ACROSS 
ISTHMUS PASSAGE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES